Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

Models of species’ demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species’ native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species’ demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species.     

Evaluating portable infrared spectrometers for measuring the silica content of coal dust

Miners face a variety of respiratory hazards while on the job, including exposure to silica dust which can lead to silicosis, a potentially fatal lung disease. Currently, field-collected filter samples of silica are sent for laboratory analysis and the results take weeks to be reported. Since the mining workplace is constantly moving into new and often different geological strata with changing silica levels, more timely data on silica levels in mining workplaces could help reduce exposures. Improvements in infrared (IR) spectroscopy open the prospect for end-of-shift silica measurements at mine sites. Two field-portable IR spectrometers were evaluated for their ability to quantify the mass of silica on filter samples loaded with known amounts of either silica or silica-bearing coal dust (silica content ranging from 10-200 μg/filter). Analyses included a scheme to correct for the presence of kaolin, which is a confounder for IR analysis of silica. IR measurements of the samples were compared to parallel measurements derived using the laboratory-based U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration P7 analytical method. Linear correlations between Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and P7 data yielded slopes in the range of 0.90-0.97 with minimal bias. Data from a variable filter array spectrometer did not correlate as well, mainly due to poor wavelength resolution compared to the FTIR instrument. This work has shown that FTIR spectrometry has the potential to reasonably estimate the silica exposure of miners if employed in an end-of-shift method.     

Gauging the societal impacts of natural disasters using a capability approach

There is a widely acknowledged need for a single composite index that provides a comprehensive picture of the societal impact of disasters. A composite index combines and logically organizes important information policy‐makers need to allocate resources for the recovery from natural disasters; it can also inform hazard mitigation strategies. This paper develops a Disaster Impact Index (DII) to gauge the societal impact of disasters on the basis of the changes in individuals’ capabilities. The DII can be interpreted as the disaster impact per capita. Capabilities are dimensions of individual well‐being and refer to the genuine opportunities individuals have to achieve valuable states and activities (such as being adequately nourished or being mobile). After discussing the steps required to construct the DII, this article computes and compares the DIIs for two earthquakes of similar magnitude in two societies at different levels of development and of two disasters (earthquake and wind storm) in the same society.     

The OECD validation program of the H295R steroidogenesis assay: Phase 3. Final inter-laboratory validation study

Background, goals, and scope

In response to increasing concerns regarding the potential of chemicals to interact with the endocrine system of humans and wildlife, various national and international programs have been initiated with the aim to develop new guidelines for the screening and testing of these chemicals in vertebrates. Here, we report on the validation of an in vitro assay, the H295R steroidogenesis assay, to detect chemicals with the potential to inhibit or induce the production of the sex steroid hormones testosterone (T) and 17??-estradiol (E2) in preparation for the development of an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) test guideline.

Methods

A previously optimized and pre-validated protocol was used to assess the potential of 28 chemicals of diverse structures and properties to validate the H295R steroidogenesis assay. These chemicals are comprised of known endocrine-active chemicals and ??negative?? chemicals that were not expected to have effects on the targeted endpoints, as well as a number of test chemicals with unknown modes of action at the level of the steroidogenic pathway. A total of seven laboratories from seven countries participated in this effort. In addition to effects on hormone production, confounding factors, such as cell viability and possible direct interference of test substances with antibody-based hormone detection assays, were assessed. Prior to and during the conduct of exposure experiments, each laboratory had to demonstrate that they were able to conduct the assay within the margin of predefined performance criteria.

Results

With a few exceptions, all laboratories met the key quality performance parameters, and only 2% and 7% of all experiments for T and E2, respectively, were excluded due to exceedance of these parameters. Of the 28 chemicals analyzed, 13 and 14 tested affected production of T and E2, respectively, while 11 and 8 did not result in significant effects on T and E2 production, respectively. Four and six chemicals produced ambiguous results for effects on T and E2 production, respectively. However, four of these cases each for T and E2 were associated with only one laboratory after a personnel change occurred. Significant interference of test chemicals with some of the antibody-based hormone detection systems occurred for four chemicals. Only one of these chemicals, however, significantly affected the ability of the detection system to categorize the chemical as affecting E2 or T production.

Discussion and conclusions

With one exception, the H295R steroidogenesis assay protocol successfully identified the majority of chemicals with known and unknown modes of interaction as inducers or inhibitors of T and E2 production. Thus it can be considered a reliable screen for chemicals that can alter the production of sex steroid hormones. One of the remaining limitations associated with the H295R steroidogenesis assay protocol is the relatively small basal production of E2 and its effect on quantifying the decreased production of this hormone with regard to the identification of weak inhibitors. An initial comparison of the data produced in this study with those from in vivo studies from the literature demonstrated the potential of the H295R steroidogenesis assay to identify chemicals affecting hormone homeostasis in whole organisms. Particularly promising was the lack of any false negatives during the validation and the very low number of false positives (1 out of 28 chemicals for each T and E2).

Perspectives

Based on the results obtained during this validation study and the accordingly revised test protocols, an OECD draft test guideline was developed and submitted to the OECD working group of the national coordinators of the test guidelines program (WNT) for comments in December 2009.     

Optimal Loading Rates and Economic Analyses for Anaerobic Digestion of Poultry Waste

ABSTRACT

Four combinations of litter and carcasses from broiler chickens were examined utilizing a thermophilic, stirred-tank digester of demonstration size of approximately 10,000 gal. Under computed optimal loading rates, litter with paper bedding had the highest daily production of methane over an 8-day retention period. The greatest methane production per lb of volatile solids was achieved over 10 days with litter and paper bedding combined with carcasses. This research found that sufficient poultry litter is generated within 20 mi (32 km) of Moorefield, WV, to support a commercial-sized digester operation. However, anaerobic digestion of poultry waste cannot be financially supported by methane production alone. To be financially viable, anaerobic digestion requires a disposal fee for poultry waste and/or the sale of the digested solid effluent as an organic fertilizer to retail markets.     

Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil

Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e. peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e. expensive), and thus will most likely occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks where economic growth, which requires more oil, would require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. We conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.     

Nitrogen dynamics in an Australian semiarid grassland soil

We conducted a four-week laboratory incubation of soil from a Themeda triandra Forsskal grassland to clarify mechanisms of nitrogen (N) cycling processes in relation to carbon (C) and N availability in a hot, semiarid environment. Variation in soil C and N availability was achieved by collecting soil from either under tussocks or the bare soil between tussocks, and by amending soil with Themeda litter. We measured N cycling by monitoring: dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), ammonium (NH4+), and nitrate (NO3-) contents, gross rates of N mineralization and microbial re-mineralization, NH4+ and NO3- immobilization, and autotrophic and heterotrophic nitrification. We monitored C availability by measuring cumulative soil respiration and dissolved organic C (DOC). Litter-amended soil had cumulative respiration that was eightfold greater than non-amended soil (2000 compared with 250 microg C/g soil) and almost twice the DOC content (54 compared with 28 microg C/g soil). However, litter-amended soils had only half as much DON accumulation as non-amended soils (9 compared with 17 microg N/g soil) and lower gross N rates (1-4 compared with 13-26 microg N x [g soil](-1) x d(-1)) and NO3- accumulation (0.5 compared with 22 microg N/g soil). Unamended soil from under tussocks had almost twice the soil respiration as soil from between tussocks (300 compared with 175 microg C/g soil), and greater DOC content (33 compared with 24 microg C/g soil). However, unamended soil from under tussocks had lower gross N rates (3-20 compared with 17-31 microg N x [g soil](-1) d(-1)) and NO3- accumulation (18 compared with 25 microg N/g soil) relative to soil from between tussocks. We conclude that N cycling in this grassland is mediated by both C and N limitations that arise from the patchiness of tussocks and seasonal variability in Themeda litterfall. Heterotrophic nitrification rate explained >50% of total nitrification, but this percentage was not affected by proximity to tussocks or litter amendment. A conceptual model that considers DON as central to N cycling processes provided a useful initial framework to explain results of our study. However, to fully explain N cycling in this semiarid grassland soil, the production of NO3- from organic N sources must be included in this model.